AP-NY--BTV-NY NE Area Forecast Discussion, NY

000

FXUS61 KBTV 151414

AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

1014 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING

WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND LESS HUMID AIR. A RIDGE OF

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA

THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH

FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1014 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE GOING FORECAST

TO ADJUST TEMPS FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COLD FRONT

WHICH BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN LAST

NIGHT HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH A GOOD DEAL

OF LOW CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND. WHERE CEILINGS ARE LOW (BELOW 1500 FT)

THERE'S LIKELY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL HANGING AROUND SO

MENTIONED A FEW HOURS OF THAT MAINLY ACROSS THE DACKS AND

EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR

THROUGH THE DAY, BUT EXPECT BY THE AFTERNOON IT SHOULD BE PARTLY

TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM

THIS MORNINGS CHILLY LOWS, WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW

NORMAL FOR MID JULY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 427 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH

COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY

SKIES ON THURSDAY AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE

MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE

UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY

CALM WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR

RADIATION FOG TO FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF EASTERN

AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE

ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MORE FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT

THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF VERMONT AND

NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S

WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECTING THESE LOW

TEMPERATURES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 442 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL

APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF

OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP US IN AN

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES

WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH IT'S WAY

ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. SOME

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT MPV AND RUT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR

CONDITIONS RIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE

FRONT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. VISIBILITIES WILL

REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ONCE

THE FRONT PASSES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY

THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE

PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WITH

GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN AFTER

ABOUT 00Z AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR WITH SURFACE HIGH

PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING AT

MPV/SLK BETWEEN 07Z-11Z WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS

AND STORMS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH BRIEF

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

AS OF 427 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT

FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING FOR NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS

AND WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO

10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 1

TO 2 FEET. THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SKIES

WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...NONE.

NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WGH

NEAR TERM...LAHIFF

SHORT TERM...WGH

LONG TERM...NEILES

AVIATION...NEILES

MARINE...WGH

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 10:15AM EDT