Up to 16 inches of snow possible in NYC, NJ: Latest storm forecast, weekend timeline

NEW YORK - A powerful winter storm could bring up to 16 inches of snow and frigid temperatures to the New York City area this weekend.

NYC SNOWSTORM SUNDAY: PREDICTED TOTALS | TIMELINE | 7-DAY FORECAST l LIVE UPDATES l LIVE RADAR

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Snow prediction NYC

What we know:

The National Weather Service (NWS) says the storm is increasingly likely to impact the region late Saturday night into Monday, with heavy snow and potential travel disruptions.

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Forecasters say confidence is growing that the storm will deliver warning-level snowfall across much of the Tri-State area, followed by a prolonged stretch of dangerously cold temperatures into the middle of next week.

How many inches of snow are we getting on Sunday?

By the numbers:

The National Weather Service says a winter storm is likely to bring significant snowfall to the region, with the potential for up to a foot of snow in parts of the tri-state area.

Snow totals will depend on the storm’s exact track, but forecasters say heavy accumulation is possible in New York City, with the highest snowfall rates expected Sunday into Sunday night.

Snow totals 

The agency says the probability of at least 6 inches of snow — the threshold for a winter storm warning — is now greater than 85% across the region. The chance of 12 inches or more of snow has remained steady at around 50% since Wednesday afternoon.

When is the snow supposed to start?

Timeline:

Snow could begin as early as late Saturday night and continue through Monday afternoon, according to the NWS.

The heaviest snow is expected to fall Sunday into a portion of Sunday night, a period forecasters say could bring rapid accumulation, blowing and drifting snow, and dangerous travel conditions.

"A winter storm watch is going into effect from late Saturday through at least midday Monday," FOX 5 NY meteorologist Mike Woods said. "As we get closer to storm time, this will likely expand across the rest of the tri-state."

Will there be ice or wintry mix?

At this time, forecasters expect the snow to be dry and powdery, which could allow it to accumulate quickly.

However, a brief period of wetter snow or wintry mix remains possible for southern portions of the tri-state area, including coastal sections, if the storm tracks closer to the coast Sunday evening.

Even if mixing occurs, forecasters say heavy snow would already have fallen earlier in the day.

NYC weather forecast: What happens before the storm?

Local perspective:

Conditions remain relatively mild Thursday, with temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 40s under clear skies.

"We’ve got a clear sky right now, and it’s warm and mild," Woods said. "Central Park is around 38 degrees, and we’re starting off about 20 to 30 degrees warmer than we were 24 hours ago."

That brief warm-up will end quickly as a cold front moves through, setting the stage for Arctic air to lock in ahead of the storm.

7-day forecast

• Thursday will be mostly sunny with a high near 43 degrees and gusty west winds. Clouds increase overnight, with lows around 28 and wind chills in the low 20s.
• Friday turns colder but remains mostly sunny, with highs near 36. Temperatures drop sharply Friday night, with lows around 11 degrees and wind chills between -5 and 5.

• Saturday will be sunny and frigid, with highs near 19 degrees, before snow develops overnight. Snow is likely after 1 a.m. Sunday, with 1 to 3 inches possible by daybreak.

How many inches of snow on Monday?

• Steady snow is expected Sunday, with highs near 23 degrees, before tapering off Sunday night. A chance of snow lingers Monday, followed by dry but cold conditions into midweek.

Prolonged frigid cold to follow storm

What's next:

Beyond the snow, forecasters are warning of a prolonged period of frigid air beginning Friday night and lasting into the middle of next week.

Temperatures are expected to remain well below freezing, with subzero wind chills possible overnight and early in the morning.

The NWS is urging residents to prepare for possible infrastructure impacts, including frozen pipes and increased heating demand.

Forecast uncertainty remains

What we don't know:

Forecasters caution that while confidence is high in a major winter storm, exact snowfall totals and precipitation types could still change.

A farther north track would increase the risk of mixing but keep heavy snow totals intact, while a southward shift could lower the chance of 12 inches of snow but still bring warning-level accumulation.

"With the event still about three days out, there is inherent uncertainty," the National Weather Service said, noting forecasts will be refined over the coming days.

Residents are urged to prepare now for significant winter weather and monitor updates as the storm approaches.

Why are meteorologists watching the polar vortex?

As the storm approaches, meteorologists are also watching the polar vortex, a large area of low pressure and cold air that typically remains over the Arctic.

When the polar vortex weakens or shifts, it can allow Arctic air to move farther south, increasing the chances of prolonged cold and snow across parts of the United States.

FOX Weather live updates

NYC weather radar

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Stay ahead of the snow with FOX 5 NY’s expert meteorologists, streaming LIVE on FOX LOCAL. We’re streaming nonstop coverage with the newest forecasts, snow potential, and preparation tips—before the storm and all weekend long. Download FOX LOCAL for 24/7 weather coverage on your smart TV and mobile devices.

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