These US House seats in NY could flip in the 2024 election | Projections
NEW YORK - This Election Day, New Yorkers are making pivotal choices in congressional races that could influence the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Among New York's 26 House seats up for grabs, seven are considered "swing" districts in the 2024 election, making these races some of the most critical in the nation. In these seven House races, Republicans currently hold six seats, and the outcomes could determine which party holds control of the lower chamber for the next two years.
Track real-time election results here.
With affordability, border security, and quality of life top of mind, New Yorkers’ choices in these races may be key in shaping the state’s – and the country’s – political future. Here are the candidates and races to watch:
U.S. Congressional races
Nick LaLota vs John Avlon for New York's 1st Congressional District
First-term Republican incumbent Rep. Nick LaLota faces Democratic challenger John Avlon in the fight for New York's District 1 in Eastern Long Island.
- Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Likely Republican
- Center for Politics: Likely Republican
- 538: LaLota wins the seat 86 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations
Tom Suozzi vs Mike LiPetri for New York's 3rd Congressional District
New Yorkers will choose between Rep. Tom Suozzi and Mike LiPetri to represent New York's District 3 in Nassau County and Queens.
- Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Likely Democratic
- Center for Politics: Likely Democratic
- 538: Souzi wins the seat 98 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations
Anthony D’Esposito vs Laura Gillen for New York's 4th Congressional District
New Yorkers will choose between Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and Democratic challenger Laura Gillen to represent New York's District 4 in Nassau County.
- Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Leans Democratic
- Center for Politics: Leans Democratic
- 538: Gillen wins the seat 76 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations
Mike Lawler vs Mondaire Jones for New York's 17th Congressional District
U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican, is locked in a competitive reelection bid against Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones for New York's District 17 in New York’s Hudson Valley.
- Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Leans Republican
- Center for Politics: Leans Republican
- 538: Lawler wins the seat 64 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations
Pat Ryan vs Alison Esposito for New York's 18th congressional district
Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan is working to hold on to his seat in New York's District 18 in the Hudson Valley as Republican challenger Alison Esposito seeks to unseat him.
- Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Leans Democrat
- Center for Politics: Leans Democratic
- 538: Ryan wins the seat 87 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations
Marc Molinaro vs Josh Riley for New York's 19th congressional district
Democrat Josh Riley is fighting to unseat Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro in New York's District 19 this Election Day – a rematch of their close 2022 contest that Politico has dubbed "New York's nastiest House race."
- Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Toss-Up
- Center for Politics: Toss-Up
- 538: Riley wins the seat 53 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations
Rep. Brandon Williams vs John Mannion in New York's 22nd congressional district
Republican Rep. Brandon Williams is fighting to retain his New York District 22 seat in Upstate New York as he faces a tough challenge from Democrat John Mannion.
- Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Leans Democratic
- Center for Politics: Leans Democratic
- 538: Mannion wins the seat 77 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations