US House race projections: What polls say about NY's swing districts

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NEW YORK - This Election Day, New Yorkers are making pivotal choices in congressional races that could influence the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Among New York's 26 House seats up for grabs, seven are considered "swing" districts in the 2024 election, making these races some of the most critical in the nation. In these seven House races, Republicans currently hold six seats, and the outcomes could determine which party holds control of the lower chamber for the next two years.

Track real-time election results here.

With affordability, border security, and quality of life top of mind, New Yorkers’ choices in these races may be key in shaping the state’s – and the country’s – political future. Here are the candidates and races to watch:

U.S. Congressional races

Nick LaLota vs John Avlon for New York's 1st Congressional District

Race for Long Island's District 1 heats up

The fight for New York's 1st Congressional District is heating up as first-term Republican incumbent Nick LaLota faces Democratic challenger John Avlon.

First-term Republican incumbent Rep. Nick LaLota faces Democratic challenger John Avlon in the fight for New York's District 1 in Eastern Long Island.

Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Likely Republican
Center for Politics: Likely Republican
538: LaLota wins the seat 86 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations

Tom Suozzi vs Mike LiPetri for New York's 3rd Congressional District

New Yorkers will choose between Rep. Tom Suozzi and Mike LiPetri to represent New York's District 3 in Nassau County and Queens.

Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Likely Democratic
Center for Politics: Likely Democratic
538: Souzi wins the seat 98 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations

Anthony D’Esposito vs Laura Gillen for New York's 4th Congressional District

D’Esposito, Gillen face off in tight NY-4 race

As the race for New York’s 4th Congressional District on Long Island heats up, a new poll shows Democratic challenger Laura Gillen leading Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito by 12 points. Both candidates, who faced off in 2022, are gearing up for a rematch with national implications, as control of Congress may hang in the balance. FOX 5’s Jodi Goldberg reports.

New Yorkers will choose between Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and Democratic challenger Laura Gillen to represent New York's District 4 in Nassau County.

Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Leans Democratic
Center for Politics: Leans Democratic
538: Gillen wins the seat 76 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations

Mike Lawler vs Mondaire Jones for New York's 17th Congressional District

NY's 17th District race: Lawler vs. Jones

With Election Day around the corner, New York’s 17th Congressional District is heating up as Republican Mike Lawler faces Democrat Mondaire Jones. Fox 5’s Morgan McKay speaks with both candidates to break down their positions on key issues, from immigration and cost of living to healthcare and affordable housing.

U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican, is locked in a competitive reelection bid against Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones for New York's District 17 in New York’s Hudson Valley.

Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Leans Republican
Center for Politics: Leans Republican
538: Lawler wins the seat 64 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations

Pat Ryan vs Alison Esposito for New York's 18th congressional district

Pat Ryan vs Alison Esposito

Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan is working to hold on to his seat in New York's 18th Congressional District as Republican challenger Alison Esposito seeks to unseat him. FOX 5 NY’s Morgan McKay spoke with both candidates.

Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan is working to hold on to his seat in New York's District 18 in the Hudson Valley as Republican challenger Alison Esposito seeks to unseat him.

Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Leans Democrat
Center for Politics: Leans Democratic
538: Ryan wins the seat 87 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations

Marc Molinaro vs Josh Riley for New York's 19th congressional district

Democrat Josh Riley is fighting to unseat Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro in New York's District 19 this Election Day – a rematch of their close 2022 contest that Politico has dubbed "New York's nastiest House race."

Cook Political Report House Race Rating: Toss-Up
Center for Politics: Toss-Up
538: Riley wins the seat 53 times out of 100 times in 538's simulations

Rep. Brandon Williams vs John Mannion in New York's 22nd congressional district

Republican Rep. Brandon Williams is fighting to retain his New York District 22 seat in Upstate New York as he faces a tough challenge from Democrat John Mannion.