Hurricane Rafael path: Tracker, latest models and more l LIVE updates
Hurricane Rafael slammed into Cuba as a major hurricane on Wednesday, and the late-season tropical system has now emerged in the Gulf of Mexico. But the question now turns to – where is it going next?
HURRICANE RAFAEL UPDATE: LOCATION l PROJECTED PATH
The FOX Forecast Center said that what’s happening now is a rare occurrence. Rafael remains a Category 2 hurricane as of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The intensity forecast for Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)
It’s the first Category 2 storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico in November since Hurricane Ida back in 2009.
Cuba hurricane 2024
Cuba and parts of the western Caribbean no doubt took the brunt of the storm, which brought damaging, hurricane-force winds, flooding rain, and a potentially deadly storm surge.
All tropical alerts have been dropped and conditions are expected to gradually improve across the region, but millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast will be closely monitoring the hurricane’s progress as it slowly churns over the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Rafael path tracker: Where is the storm?
As of the latest advisory from the NHC, Rafael is about 200 miles west of Key West, Florida, and moving northwest at 9 mph.
This graphic shows the status of Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)
Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, and it is expected to weaken as the storm meanders in the Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
Where is Hurricane Rafael going to hit?
The FOX Forecast Center said that computer forecast models strongly agree that Rafael will quickly turn to the west and begin its journey toward the central Gulf of Mexico.
The forecast cone for Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)
The steering currents assisting Rafael on its path from the Caribbean to the Gulf will begin to drastically weaken, allowing the hurricane to meander in the central Gulf through the weekend and into next week.
Hurricane Rafael projected path
The FOX Forecast Center added that there is an increasing consensus that Rafael will slowly move toward Texas or Mexico and steadily weaken as it does so.
The spaghetti plots for Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)
However, there is a chance that Rafael could make a turn to the north, but the FOX Forecast Center says that’s looking less likely.
That’s because Rafael will be moving into a very dry atmosphere and strong upper-level headwinds. Due to the hostile atmospheric conditions, Rafael could simply dissipate.
If Rafael survives into next week, the FOX Forecast Center said it could be because it has moved just far enough south in the western Gulf of Mexico to avoid those hostile conditions. In that case, the Mexican coast could be threatened.