Winter storm snow forecast: NYC could see white Valentine's Day
NEW YORK - Will NYC see snow next week, just in time for Valentine's Day?
Weather forecasters are tracking a winter storm system that could deliver wintry precipitation to the Big Apple by Tuesday.
JUMP TO: WEATHER FORECAST TIMELINE l WINTER STORM IMPACTS l EARLY SPRING?
New York City's Central Park has recorded a measly 2.3 inches of snow this winter, but FOX 5 NY’s Nick Gregory said the area has the potential for at least another 15 inches, according to his mid-winter forecast.
Only one or two decent storms will help us reach this projected total, and Nick forecasts that February will provide the perfect conditions for winter storm development.
With all that in mind, here's what we can expect.
Timeline: Will it snow in NYC?
Monday: Mostly cloudy skies. A chance of rain and snow before 10 a.m., then a chance of rain. Chance of precipitation: 40%.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy skies. Rain is likely before 4 a.m., then rain and snow will be likely. Chance of precipitation: 70%.
Low pressure will roll into the Northeast and slide over the Atlantic Ocean early Tuesday. Meanwhile, colder air will get pulled down from Canada, dropping temperatures close to or below freezing Monday night through Tuesday.
Here's a look at Monday night's forecast in the East. (FOX Weather)
Tuesday: Partly sunny skies. Snow is likely, possibly mixed with rain, mainly before 7 a.m. Chance of precipitation: 60%.
Here's a look at Tuesday's forecast in the East. (FOX Weather)
The storm may briefly start as rain for some areas along the Atlantic Coast Monday night, but as the storm strengthens, it'll be able to continuously tap into colder air, ensuring a rain-to-snow changeover that won't revert at any point, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Impacts: How much snow could fall in NYC?
Based on current forecast trends, the track of the low will produce a fairly widespread swath of moderate-to-heavy snow from Pennsylvania to Massachusetts through Tuesday.
Computer forecast models are trending toward a stronger storm system, so the FOX Forecast Center is talking about higher snow totals being a possibility.
Here's a look at the snow potentail from Sunday through Wednesday in the East. (FOX Weather)
New York City is in play for accumulating snow. However, we're still just a bit too far out to determine exact snow amounts, but there is the potential for a moderate-to-heavy snow event. The storm's exact track and ability to strengthen will be key factors in determining how much snow will fall and where.
Featured
NYC mid-winter weather forecast: Major snow storm likely in coming weeks
Early spring for NYC? Not likely. The mid-range winter weather forecast shows a major snow storm or two could be headed our way in the coming weeks.
This season, NYC has seen several rain-snow events, some with temperatures escalating above freezing and below freezing, creating a rain-snow divide between the coast and inland. This storm could continue that trend.
Anyone commuting or with travel plans for early next week should be keeping a close eye on this forecast, as the storm can potentially create chaos for some of the nation's busiest airports and roads.
Should NYC expect "six more weeks of winter" or "early spring"?
Punxsutawney Phil predicted last week an early spring for NYC, but as Gregory had said in his original winter weather outlook, the U.S. is experiencing a strong El Niño, meaning the Tri-State is more likely to see warmer-than-average temperatures and wetter-than-average precipitation.
As we move forward, strong El Niño conditions will continue, meaning February will feature the same type of weather we've seen: above-average temperatures and borderline rain-snow events.
"I think winter will be prolonged here, and I do think that we'll probably have a good surge of cold weather coming in the middle part of February, [creating the potential for a snow storm or two," Nick said.
Andrew Wulfeck, with FOX Weather, helped contribute to this report.