Here's how much snow to expect this winter in NYC

NEW YORK CITY - New Yorkers are waking up to an almost ice-cold Wednesday morning, reminding everyone that the start of winter is just over a month away!

Temperatures dropped to the mid-thirties just before sunrise, and the Tri-State can expect a bit more of a chill before the weekend – an unusual dip in this unusually warm season.

So, with cold temperatures and frost on our mind, it brings up the question: How much snow can we expect this winter in NYC?

JUMP TO: NOR'EASTER POTENTIAL l SNOW TOTALS l WINTER OUTLOOKS

When is winter 2024-2025?

Winter officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere on Dec. 21 with the winter solstice – the day with the least amount of possible daylight and the longest night.

Will there be a nor'easter this winter?

FOX 5 NY's Nick Gregory shared his winter weather outlook for this year, including the potential for a nor'easter and his snow total predictions.

For New York City and the surrounding region, the La Niña pattern suggests a winter that could see average to slightly below-average temperatures.

"NYC will always see a nor'easter during winter," Gregory said. "The issue will be how cold it is when the storm is striking the area. A weak La Niña may create a rain/snow battle line right across the NYC area and nearby suburbs."

How much snow will fall in the NYC area?

Gregory predicts the city could receive around 20 inches of snow this winter, compared to the typical seasonal average of 28 inches. 

"We'll likely have above average temperatures this winter along with more snow than last year with somewhere near 18-23" but that is below the average snowfall for a winter in NYC," Gregory said.

Meanwhile, the lower Hudson Valley could see slightly more snowfall, with totals ranging between 20 and 25 inches, with more snowfall further north. Much of the winter may bring a mix of rain and snow along the coast, with heavier snow falling further north.

Historically, the first measurable snow (accumulation of one inch or more) tends to fall in the NYC area around Dec. 13. The earliest measurable snowfall was on October 29, 2011, when 2.9 inches fell days before Halloween.

Regional, national winter outlooks

NOAA

NOAA’s broader winter outlook highlights wetter-than-average conditions across the northern U.S., particularly in the Great Lakes region, where colder temperatures and above-average precipitation are expected. Meanwhile, the southern U.S. will likely experience a drier and warmer winter.

For the tri-state area, the region is expected to be on the fringe of these patterns. A weak La Niña often leads to storm systems taking a more northern track, which could leave New York City in the midst of a battle between rain and snow throughout the season.

The Old Farmer's Almanac

The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a "gentler-than-normal season" that’s "not so rough and tough" in the interior Northeast.

For the Interstate 95 corridor, which includes the Tri-State area, snowfall is predicted to be below average in the North but above average in the South, with the coldest temperatures in early and late January and late February.

Farmers' Almanac winter 2024

The Farmers' Almanac says to "brace yourself for a Wet Winter Whirlwind!" Their annual extended weather prediction calls for a season of rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow. 

The listing shows a very active storm track that will deliver frequent bouts of heavy precipitation and strong and gusty winds over most of the eastern half of the country.

According to their outlook, the Northeast will be stormy with above-normal amounts of winter precipitation and near-to-above-normal temperatures. 

They also predict the heaviest snowfall will fall over the interior and mountainous areas, while the coast will see sleet and rain – especially near and along the I-95 corridor.

The almanac is "red flagging" the final week of January due to a very active storm track across most of the country's eastern half.