NYC winter storm snow forecast: How much snow will fall this weekend?
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WINTER STORM SNOW FORECAST: WHEN WILL IT SNOW? l HOW MUCH WILL IT SNOW?
On Sunday, a forecast model making the rounds on social media showed a major snowstorm hitting the NYC area on Saturday with over 20 inches of snow. But how much snow can we really expect this weekend? Here's the forecast:
What did the American model say? European?
The American model showed what is known as a phase. It's where a storm from the south links up with energy in the northern jetstream, creating a powerful nor'easter that turns northward up the coastline.
Our FOX 5 NY meteorologists discussed the "blizzard or bust" scenario in the YouTube video above.
But recent runs of the European model suggest the connection will not actually happen. Without the phasing, the storm remains considerably weaker, and drifts across the southeast and then out to sea.
Snow this weekend NYC
So, what is actually going to happen this weekend?
"We are still keeping an eye on a small storm, which will bring a little bit of snow come Saturday morning," FOX 5 NY's Mike Woods said in a post on 'X.'
Is it going to snow on Saturday?
As of Thursday, the National Weather Service is calling for a 30% chance of snow before 1 p.m.
"Still brings us an opportunity for some snow showers to break out, that would be happening for the early morning hours for us Saturday," Woods said. "Saturday afternoon, it should be out of here."
Current Wide Snow Forecast. (FOX Weather)
Snowstorm coming to New York? Timeline
Models are currently showing the storm developing on Friday, then moving up the coast to spread some snow over the region from Friday night into Saturday morning:
- Friday night/early Saturday morning: Snow expected to arrive.
- Saturday morning: Snow showers.
- Early Saturday afternoon: Snow turns to wintry mix, then exits.
How much will it snow?
The National Weather Service predicts under an inch for most of the Tri-State area.
Photo credit: The National Weather Service
"Most of the models don't even want to bring you an inch of snow," Woods said.
Photo credit: The National Weather Service
It's cold!
Meanwhile, the current cold air will have staying power, with forecast models indicating it will remain locked in the East in various magnitudes through the end of the month, the FOX Forecast Center said. This will all but ensure the East Coast has its first colder-than-average January since 2022, and perhaps the coldest since 2014 or 2011.
Photo credit: The National Weather Service
On Thursday, strong wind gusts of up to 50 mph dipped wind chills down to the single digits in NYC. Even with high temperatures in the mid-30s, it will feel like the mid-to-low teens throughout the day.