How accurate is Groundhog Day?

NEW YORK - Every year on Feb. 2, Americans across the country look to an unlikely source for their long-range weather forecast: a groundhog. The most famous of these furry meteorologists is Punxsutawney Phil, but for New Yorkers, the real star of the show is Staten Island Chuck. 

With one of the best accuracy rates in the nation, Chuck has built a reputation as the most reliable groundhog in the game. So, how accurate is Groundhog Day, really? And how does Chuck stack up against his competitors?

The most accurate groundhog

By the numbers:

While many groundhogs make predictions, few can match Staten Island Chuck’s track record. Officially known as Charles G. Hogg, Chuck resides at the Staten Island Zoo, where he has been forecasting the weather since 1981. Over the past two decades, Chuck has achieved an 85% accuracy rate, placing him ahead of all other U.S. groundhogs, including Punxsutawney Phil, whose accuracy lags at 39%.

Punxatawney Phil's prediction record last 10 years. (FOX Weather)

Chuck’s predictions are based on whether he sees his shadow at the zoo’s annual Groundhog Day ceremony. In 2024, he forecasted an early spring, aligning with Phil for the first time in years. This marked the ninth consecutive year Chuck failed to see his shadow – a streak that has made many New Yorkers hopeful for milder winters.

How Does Chuck Compare to Other Groundhogs?

Across the U.S., various groundhogs vie for meteorological supremacy. Here’s how Chuck measures up to some of his competitors:

Featured

article

Early spring or more winter? Meteorologist’s 2025 prediction for NYC

Can NYC expect six more weeks of winter – or early spring? FOX 5 NY Meteorologist Nick Gregory his 2025 mid-winter weather outlook.

Staten Island Chuck (NY): 85% accuracy

General Beauregard Lee (GA): 80% accuracy

Lander Lil (WY, Prairie Dog Statue): 75% accuracy

Malverne Mel (NY): 55% accuracy

Holtsville Hal (NY): 50% accuracy

Punxsutawney Phil (PA): 39% accuracy

Despite Phil’s long history – dating back to 1887 – he has been far less reliable than his New York rival. Other local forecasters, like Malverne Mel and Holtsville Hal on Long Island, have had mixed results, making Chuck the clear frontrunner for New Yorkers seeking a reliable Groundhog Day forecast.

A time-honored tradition

The backstory:

Groundhog Day has been a staple of American folklore since 1886, when Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, hosted the first recorded ceremony. According to tradition, if the groundhog sees its shadow, winter will last for six more weeks; if no shadow appears, spring will arrive early. Over the decades, dozens of groundhogs – and even a few alternative weather-predicting animals – have joined the annual forecasting festivities.

Featured

article

PETA wants to replace Punxsutawney Phil with 'vegan weather reveal cake'

PETA announced that it has offered the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club a free vegan cake every year if it allows Punxsutawney Phil to retire.

How to watch Staten Island Chuck's 2025 prediction

What's next:

New Yorkers eager to witness Chuck’s annual forecast can attend the Staten Island Zoo’s Groundhog Day ceremony on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025.

• Location: Staten Island Zoo, West Brighton.
• Time: Gates open at 7:30 a.m. The ceremony begins at 8 a.m., and Chuck makes his prediction at 8:30 a.m.
• Livestream: The event will also be streamed live on the zoo’s Facebook page.
• Special Guests: Ken Mitchell, the zoo’s executive director, elected officials, and students from Susan E. Wagner High School will be in attendance. This year’s ceremony will be emceed by Cara S. Liander and James McKeon.