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NEW YORK - Before it's time to defrost the turkey, a frosty low-pressure system could stifle Thanksgiving travel plans in the Tri-State with freezing temperatures, strong winds -- and even snow.
JUMP TO: NEW YORK SNOW l NYC RAIN l WINTER PREDICTION
A powerful winter storm has the potential to slam portions of the state with accumulating snow, cold temperatures, strong winds and rain – just as many people prepare to travel early for Thanksgiving.
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Weather forecast snow storm
According to the FOX Forecast Center, snowfall is possible across portions of the northern mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast from the end of the week into the weekend. However, forecasters said there's still substantial uncertainty about the amount of cold air available for snow.
This graphic shows the forecast snow totals this week. (FOX Weather)
There’s also the threat of lake-effect snow, but it will be hit-or-miss depending on how the low-pressure system tracks, according to the FOX Forecast Center. As it stands now, the air may be too warm to support lake-effect snow.
Meanwhile, the NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center is in agreement, also saying the powerful storm system could possibly bring lake effect snowfall between Thursday and Friday, but ultimately, it all depends on the cold air.
"There is uncertainty in the magnitude of the cold air, which could impact precipitation type and snow totals for some locations," the agency said in a post on Facebook.
"There is uncertainty in the magnitude of the cold air, which could impact precipitation type and snow totals for some locations," the agency said in a post on Facebook.
Weather NYC: Rain this week?
Meanwhile, New York City is set to receive some much-needed rain.
The precipitation could be heavy at times, but as of now, the FOX Forecast Center doesn’t expect there to be flash flooding in the region due to the recent record-dry conditions.
This graphic shows the forecast rain totals in the Northeast. (FOX Weather)
The National Weather Service says the chance of rain on Wednesday night in NYC is 90%, dropping to about 60% for Thursday.
New York City hasn’t received a quarter-inch of rain in a day since Sept. 29.
How much snow will fall in the NYC area?
While this week's forecast doesn't show any snowfall likely for NYC, FOX 5 NY's Nick Gregory predicts the city could receive around 20 inches of snow this winter, compared to the typical seasonal average of 28 inches.
"We'll likely have above average temperatures this winter along with more snow than last year, with somewhere near 18-23", but that is below the average snowfall for a winter in NYC," Gregory said.
NYC winter weather outlook: How much snow is expected in 2024-2025
What's in store for winter 2024-2025 in the NYC area? From snow total predictions to the potential for a nor'easter, here's what you need to know.
Meanwhile, the lower Hudson Valley could see slightly more snowfall, with totals ranging between 20 and 25 inches, with more snowfall further north. Much of the winter may bring a mix of rain and snow along the coast, with heavier snow falling further north.
When could NYC see its first snowflakes?
Historically, the first measurable snow (accumulation of one inch or more) tends to fall in the NYC area around Dec. 13. The earliest measurable snowfall was on October 29, 2011, when 2.9 inches fell days before Halloween.