What are the 7 swing states in the 2024 presidential election?
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Every presidential election, Americans hear that results boil down to the "swing states" or "battleground" states. But, what defines which states are included in those fields? And what are the key swing states this year?
What is defined as a swing state?
A swing state is defined as any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate, which leads to both parties putting in additional resources then they would over states such as Texas and New York.
Some states, such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, have recently fallen under the swing states field during past presidential elections, while other states, such as Florida, have since moved away to become favored by a certain political party.
JUMP TO: ARIZONA l GEORGIA l MICHIGAN l NEVADA l NORTH CAROLINA l PENNSYLVANIA l WISCONSIN
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With Election Day 2024 just a day away, all eyes are on the seven key swing states, where unique vote-counting rules mean some results might roll in fast – while others keep us guessing. From early voting to extended mail-in deadlines, each state has its own approach that could shape election night’s timeline.
Arizona
Arizona voting record: The state has traditionally gone Republican in presidential elections. Except for Bill Clinton’s win in 1996, Arizona voted Republican from 1952 through 2016. However, that 2016 election saw Donald Trump win by a narrower margin than other recent GOP nominees and, in 2020, Joe Biden won the state by 0.3%. Biden's 49.4% support was the highest level for a Democratic candidate since 1964.
Arizona polls
An average of 15 polls, with the latest as of Nov. 3, showed Trump with a 1.6% lead over Harris, according to 270toWin.
Why is Arizona a swing state?
Arizona remains a major electoral battleground four years after President Joe Biden became only the second Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state in nearly 70 years. Biden benefited from the state’s changing demographics and successfully won over swing voters who split their tickets back in 2018 to elect a Republican governor and a Democrat to the U.S. Senate.
When to expect results in Arizona
Arizona’s high volume of early ballots dropped off on Election Day itself has historically delayed final results:
- Ballot verification: Early ballots dropped off on Election Day undergo verification, including signature checks, before being counted. Maricopa County, in particular, saw a record 100,000 ballots dropped off on Election Day in 2020.
- Counting timeline: As of Nov. 10 in the 2020 election, 619,000 ballots were still uncounted. This trend could repeat in 2024 due to tight races and record turnout.
- Comparison with Florida: Unlike Arizona, Florida only allows Election Day drop-offs at county election offices, which may explain its faster reporting.
Officials in Arizona expect a close race, with results likely unfolding over days as late ballots are verified and counted.
When do polls close in Arizona?
Polls close at 9 p.m. E.T.
How many electoral votes does Arizona have?
Arizona has 11 electoral votes.
Georgia
Georgia voting record: The state was reliably Republican from 1972 through 2016, except when a southern Democrat was on the ticket. In 2020, Joe Biden won by 0.2% over Donald Trump.
Georgia polls
An average of 12 polls, the most recent on Nov. 3, shows Trump with a 1.2% lead in Georgia.
Why is Georgia a swing state?
Georgia remains one of the top prizes in the presidential election. The state played a key role in 2020, when Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since Bill Clinton in 1992. Biden defeated Trump in Georgia by less than a quarter of a percentage point, a margin of 11,779 votes.
When to expect results in Georgia
Georgia faces record turnout amid a high number of legal challenges that could impact vote processing:
- Litigation: Recent lawsuits challenge voter registration deadlines, candidate qualifications, and last-minute State Election Board rules. The Georgia Supreme Court recently delayed ruling on last-minute changes until after the election.
- Voter registration: Hurricane Helene led to lawsuits seeking to extend voter registration deadlines, though these were ultimately denied.
- Third-party candidates: Some ballots may include disqualified third-party candidates due to a Supreme Court ruling issued after absentee ballots were distributed.
With numerous lawsuits and high turnout, Georgia’s election results may be delayed, particularly in close races.
When do polls close in Georgia?
Polls close at 7 p.m. E.T.
How many electoral votes does Georgia have?
Georgia has 16 electoral votes.
Michigan
Michigan voting record: Donald Trump narrowly flipped the state in 2016, defeating Hillary Clinton by just 0.2%. Joe Biden won by 2.8% in 2020, bringing the state back to the Democratic column.
Michigan polls
An average of 20 polls, the most recent on Nov. 3, shows Harris with a 1.5% lead in Michigan.
Why is Michigan a swing state?
The state was one of three presidential battlegrounds that went narrowly for Trump in 2016 after almost 30 years of supporting Democrats for president. Four years later, Biden won all three states back for Democrats, with a margin in Michigan of about 154,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million votes cast.
When to expect results in Michigan
Michigan's 2024 election will be the first time the state offers early voting during a presidential election, which officials hope will ease lines on Election Day.
- Voting options: Absentee ballots were mailed out starting Sept. 26, with in-person early voting beginning Oct. 7.
- Counting timeline: Clerks are allowed to begin processing absentee ballots eight days before Election Day, which could reduce delays. Many counties expect to have 90% of absentee ballots processed before polls open.
- Potential delays: Some clerks are concerned about USPS delays, which could impact ballots mailed close to Election Day. Voters are encouraged to submit absentee ballots at least two weeks early.
With a high turnout expected, Michigan election officials aim to avoid the delays seen in 2020 by utilizing early voting and efficient absentee processing.
When do polls close in Michigan?
Polls close at 8 p.m. E.T in most of the state. Since Michigan covers two time zones, some polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
How many electoral votes does Michigan have?
Michigan has 15 electoral votes.
Nevada
Nevada voting record: In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by a margin of 48% to 46%. In 2020, Joe Biden won by about 2.5% over Trump.
Nevada polls
An average of 13 polls, the most recent on Nov. 3, shows Trump with a 0.6% lead in Nevada.
Why is Nevada a swing state?
Nevada has one of the nation’s best track records as a presidential bellwether. The candidate who won the state has gone on to win the White House in 27 of the last 30 presidential elections. It voted for the losing candidate only in 1908, 1976 and 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton carried the state. Democrats have won Nevada in the last four presidential elections.
When to expect results in Nevada
Nevada allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted up to four days after, which may delay final results.
- Mail-in voting: With more than half the state voting by mail, ballots postmarked by Election Day are accepted for counting until four days afterward.
- Upgrades: A new statewide registration system is designed to speed up counting, with Clark County adding tabulation equipment to manage high turnout.
- Counting timeline: Results may be available gradually, but a definitive outcome could take days, particularly in close races.
In 2020, Nevada’s results were confirmed four days after Election Day, and 2024 may follow a similar timeline.
When do polls close in Nevada?
Polls close at 10 p.m. E.T.
How many electoral votes does Nevada have?
Nevada has six electoral votes.
North Carolina
North Carolina voting record: Donald Trump won the state by 3.6% over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and by 1.3% over Joe Biden in 2020.
North Carolina polls
An average of 15 polls, the most recent on Nov. 3, shows Trump with a 1.2% lead in North Carolina.
Why is North Carolina a swing state?
The Tarheel State is one of a handful of competitive presidential battlegrounds that will likely determine the race for the White House. Since 1968, Democratic presidential candidates have carried North Carolina only twice: in 1976 and 2008. Nonetheless, the state has been competitive in recent years. Trump carried North Carolina twice but with less than 50% of the vote each time. He edged Biden in 2020 by about one percentage point, his smallest winning margin in any state.
When to expect results in North Carolina
North Carolina aims to report nearly all (90%) of its votes by midnight on Election Day, Nov. 5.
- Absentee ballots: The state processes absentee ballots weekly beginning Oct. 1, allowing them to be counted immediately once polls close.
- Early voting: In-person early voting is available from Oct. 17 through Nov. 2, and totals are processed before Election Day.
- Weather challenges: Western North Carolina faces potential complications from Hurricane Helene’s aftermath, which affected polling site accessibility. New rules provide more options for impacted voters.
Given the streamlined processes, North Carolina is likely to have results earlier than many other swing states.
When do polls close in North Carolina?
Polls close at 7:30 p.m. E.T.
How many electoral votes does North Carolina have?
North Carolina has 16 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania voting record: In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by 0.7%. Again competitive in 2020, Joe Biden won by 1.2%.
Pennsylvania polls
An average of 22 polls, the most recent on Nov. 3, shows Trump with just the slightest lead – 0.1% – in Pennsylvania.
Why is Pennsylvania a swing state?
Pennsylvania was one of three "blue wall" swing states that went narrowly for Trump in 2016 after almost 30 years of voting for Democratic presidential candidates. Four years later, Democrat Joe Biden won all three states back for Democrats with a margin in Pennsylvania of about 80,000 votes out of more than 6.9 million votes cast.
When to expect results in Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, mail-in ballots cannot be processed until 7 a.m. on Election Day, leading to expected delays in results.
- Mail-in voting: Over 1 million people used mail-in ballots in the last governor’s election. This year, a new bill allowing pre-Election Day processing remains stalled in the state legislature.
- Counting timeline: Without early processing, mail-in ballots may take days to count, especially in a close race. Democrats tend to favor mail-in voting, so early results may lean Republican until mail ballots are processed.
- Legal and legislative factors: Former Gov. Tom Wolf’s Act 77 expanded mail-in voting, and ongoing political tensions impact any attempts to change Pennsylvania’s counting procedures.
Pennsylvania’s Secretary of State has indicated that voters shouldn’t expect a clear winner on election night, especially given the anticipated high mail-in turnout.
When do polls close in Pennsylvania?
Polls close at 8 p.m. E.T.
How many electoral votes does Pennsylvania have?
Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin voting record: In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by 0.7% over Hillary Clinton. The state returned to the Democratic fold in 2020, as Joe Biden won narrowly over Trump.
Wisconsin polls
An average of 14 polls, the most recent on Nov. 3, shows Harris with a 0.8% lead in Wisconsin.
Why is Wisconsin a swing state?
Wisconsin was one of three "blue wall" states that went narrowly for Trump in 2016 after almost 30 years of voting for Democratic presidential candidates. Four years later, Democrat Joe Biden won all three states back for Democrats with a margin in Wisconsin of about 20,000 votes out of nearly 3.3 million votes cast.
When to expect results in Wisconsin
Wisconsin expects delays due to absentee ballot procedures and close races.
- Counting procedure: Wisconsin counts absentee ballots centrally in certain counties, which cannot begin until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Milwaukee’s results, for example, typically come in late at night or early the following morning.
- Political polarization: Close races require nearly all ballots to be counted before results are called, contributing to longer wait times for unofficial results.
- Historical timeline: In 2020, the AP called Wisconsin the day after the election. Based on past years, unofficial results for the 2024 election may not be available until early on Nov. 6.
Election officials emphasize accuracy over speed, with late-night absentee counts expected to affect early results.
When do polls close in Wisconsin?
Polls close at 9 p.m.
How many electoral votes does Wisconsin have?
Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes.
270 to Win Election Map
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Source: 270toWin.
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The Associated Press wire services helped contribute to this report.