Best and worst scenarios for Debby in NYC

Tropical Storm Debby: Best and worst scenarios

There's been on and off light rain all day and that's expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. Then, we could see another round of severe weather as Tropical Storm Debby makes its way up north. FOX 5 NY's Nick Gregory takes a look at the best and worst case scenarios.

NEW YORK CITY - Tropical Storm Debby dropped historic amounts of rain across southeastern portions of the U.S., including Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. But what does that mean for NYC?

NYC IMPACTS: ‘BEST’ CASE l ‘WORST’ CASE

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Through Sunday, parts of New York state could see an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain, as what's left of Debby races through the Tri-State area.

This graphic shows the forecast rainfall totals in the Northeast through Sunday, Aug. 11, 2024. (FOX Weather)

New York City has been placed in a Level 2 flood threat by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

This graphic shows the flood threat in the Northeast on Friday, Aug. 9, 2024. (FOX Weather)

What should the Big Apple really expect though these next few days? FOX 5 NY's Nick Gregory breaks down the ‘best’ and ‘worst’ case scenarios for the region.

‘Best’ case scenario

While Debby has been crawling along the South Carolina coast today, eventually it will be turning northward, begin to accelerate, and also weaken into a Tropical Depression. The storm will have an effect on the Tri-State area, but the question remains how much rain will occur.

"At the moment, the best case scenario is a track to our west which most computer models are suggesting. This would bring the core of the heaviest rain across eastern Pennsylvania up into upstate New York and northern New England," FOX 5 NY's Nick Gregory said.

That could still result in showers and thunderstorms for our area and, because of the tropical nature of the moisture, we could still end up with some locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches.

The higher amounts of 4 to 6+ inches would be over eastern Pennsylvania and to the north.

‘Worst’ case scenario

The worst case scenario would be that the track shifts further east, bringing the core of the storm closer or directly over the Tri-State area, which would then in turn bring with it those 4 to 6 inch rainfall totals.

That could then result in the threat of flash flooding.

Debby projected path

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Debby. (FOX Weather)

Debby storm path timeline

The FOX Forecast Center said that on Friday, Debby, which will be quickly transitioning from a tropical storm to a post-tropical storm will begin to push through interior portions of the Northeast.

Forecast cone for Tropical Storm Debby. (FOX Weather)

"Heavy tropical rain related to Debby will be in the area in a couple of days," Woods said in a post on X, formally Twitter.

The extreme amounts of tropical moisture still being produced by the storm, combined with a dip in the jet stream off to the west, are expected to produce heavy precipitation throughout the interior Northeast.