Can Donald Trump really turn New York red?
NEW YORK - "We are going to win New York!"
Speaking for around an hour and a half in front of a packed Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, former President Donald Trump promised Wednesday night to become the first Republican presidential candidate to win New York state since Ronald Reagan back in 1984. Trump also claimed he had a "real chance" to turn the Empire State red in a post on Truth Social Tuesday.
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Trump rallies thousands in the South Bronx as he tries to woo his hometown
Former President Donald Trump held a campaign rally on Thursday in the Bronx, as he hopes to woo minority voters by appearing in one of New York City's most diverse and impoverished neighborhoods.
But is it really possible?
Newly-released Sienna College poll
According to a Siena College poll of New York State likely voters released today, Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump 52-40% (49-37% in August), with 3% for the minor party candidates.
"New York remains solidly ‘blue’ but perhaps not as deep blue as it has been in the last several presidential cycles," Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. "In the six presidential elections this century, Democrats have carried New York by at least 18 points, and at least 22 points in five of the six."
Trump holds campaign rally in South Bronx
Former President Donald Trump is campaigning in one of the most Democratic counties in the nation Thursday, holding a rally in the South Bronx. He's hoping to woo minority voters by appearing in one of the most diverse and impoverished neighborhoods in the city where he grew up.
Voters say they trust Harris more than Trump on abortion, democracy and the economy, the poll said.
"Despite the Democratic convention, the debate and numerous other events during the six weeks between Siena College polls, there has been little movement in the horse race or in either candidate’s favorability rating," Greenberg said.
President Joe Biden carried 60.9% of the New York state vote in 2020, according to 270towin.com
To read the full poll, click HERE.
Is Long Island red?
In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by a roughly 4% margin on Long Island, besting him in Nassau County by about 60,000 votes, though Trump carried neighboring Suffolk County by more than 200 votes.
However, the area could be key to his party maintaining control of the House. His party is trying to protect 18 Republicans in Democratic-heavy congressional districts Joe Biden carried in 2020.
Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY) speaks during a news conference to announce the formation of the bipartisan Aviation Safety Caucus on the anniversary of 9/11 terrorist attacks outside the U.S. Capitol on September 11, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by
Long Island in particular features one of the most closely watched races, between first-term Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and Democrat Laura Gillen. D’Esposito is a former New York Police detective who won in 2022 in a district that Biden won by about 15 percentage points in 2020.
Long Island rally
Meanwhile, Trump last night painted a bleak picture of a state, and city, ruined by Democratic leadership and in dire need of him. The former president also spoke about being the target of two apparent assassination attempts.
"God has now spared my life, it must have been God, thank you," Trump said. "Not once, but twice."
He vowed to restore the state and local tax deduction, or SALT, the same one he himself capped in 2017, much to the chagrin of many taxpayers in the Tri-State area.
"I will cut taxes for families, small businesses and workers, including restoring the SALT deduction, saving thousands of dollars for residents of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and other high-cost states," Trump said.
Crowds gathered for Trump's Long Island rally
Crowds gathered on Long Island for Trump's rally on Wednesday. More than 60,000 tickets were requested for Donald Trump's rally. The Nassau Coliseum's arena is only able to hold 16,000. Counter-protests also happened while crowds were waiting for Trump. FOX 5 NY's Jessica Formoso has more on the crowds and protests.
The former president also blamed Democratic leadership for homeless people living in what he called "horrible, disgusting, dangerous, filthy encampments," and even the conditions on the New York City subway, which he called "squalid and unsafe" and promised to renovate.
"We’re just destroying the fabric of life in our country. And we’re not going to take it any longer. And you got to get rid of these people. Give me a shot," he said.
Trump has made immigration a top campaign issue and a key focus of Wednesday's remarks.
"Look at what's happening," Trump said. "Businesses that are fleeing, money draining out of your state and hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants sucking your public resources dry."
Former US President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at Crotona Park in the Bronx borough of New York, US, on Thursday, May 23, 2024. Trump raised $40 million from oil executives and other deep-pocketed donors during fundraising events in
When was the last time a Republican presidential candidate won NY?
A Republican hasn't carried New York in a presidential election since 1984, when incumbent President Ronald Reagan defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale by a margin of 53.8% to 45.8%, according to 270towin.com
The Associated Press wire services helped contribute to this report.