Northern Lights forecast for NY: Could the aurora borealis be visible this weekend?
NEW YORK - The Sun emitted the strongest solar flare in seven years on Thursday, and space weather forecasters are watching to see what impacts the event has on Earth, including displays of the Northern Lights and implications for the power grid, radio communications and GPS.
JUMP TO: RADIO SIGNAL IMPACTS? l NORTHERN LIGHTS FORECAST
According to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the X9.0 flare was seen blasting from the Sun yesterday morning. An X flare is the most intense, and the number represents its strength. While the Sun frequently produces these bursts of energy, flares of this magnitude are uncommon.
The X9.0 flare takes the crown from the previous strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25, which was an X8.7 flare on May 14. Thursday's flare was the 15th strongest on record, reports Space Weather Watch.
NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of an X9.0 solar flare – as seen in the bright flash in the center – on Oct. 03, 2024. The image shows a blend of 171 Angstrom, and 131 Angstrom light, subsets of extreme ultraviolet light. (Credi
The Sun is approaching its solar maximum in Solar Cycle 25 – 11 years of activity marked by a crescendo of sun spots, which can lead to solar flares and more space weather events. Since May, the Sun has created its top three strongest flares of the cycle, with two of those happening this week.
GPS, HF radio signals can be impacted
The immediate impacts of the flare include strong degradation or signal loss for high-frequency communication bands over much of the sunlit side of Earth. According to the SWPC, high-frequency radio signals may experience loss of contact or major disruptions for minutes up to a couple of hours.
During solar radiation storms of this magnitude, GPS navigation errors are likely, which could impact equipment that relies on GPS, such as tractors, as farmers experienced during May’s extreme solar storms.
Northern Lights tonight: What's the forecast?
Before this latest eruption from the Sun, the SWPC had issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch through Saturday after an X7.1, the third-strongest of the solar cycle.
The SWPC rates solar storms on a five-level scale, with five being the most extreme and rarest space weather conditions.
A period of G3 "strong" geomagnetic storming conditions is possible on Friday. These conditions could produce Aurora Borealis or Northern lights as far south as Iowa and across the Midwest.
Cloud cover should be minimal across much of the Northern Tier on Friday night, except for some clouds in the Northeast.
Aurora lights, cloud cover forecast for Friday night. (FOX Weather)
These stronger geomagnetic storms are less common than G1 or G2 events. However, Earth experienced near-global auroras in May, even as far south as Florida, when an "extreme" (G5) geomagnetic storm occurred because of two groups of extremely active sunspots.
Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis), also known as aurora, colorful lights shift, illuminate the sky in Rochester, New York, United States on May 11, 2024. (Photo by Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The new, stronger flare, space weather forecasters told FOX Weather that it's "very likely" that it has Earth-directed components. Depending on satellite observations taken the next day, the current Geomagnetic Storm Watch could be extended or upgraded to a warning.
If the SWPC forecasts a severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm, Northern Lights could be visible as far south as the Carolinas.