Northern Lights forecast: Will the aurora borealis be visible Tuesday night over NY?

NEW YORK - An ongoing geomagnetic storm will continue to bring displays of Northern Lights to northern parts of the US, including New York, through the rest of the week as the sun releases rounds of energy with a trajectory toward Earth.

JUMP TO: BEST VIEWING TIME l VIEWING CONDITIONS

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) first issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch on Monday, alerting of a potential G3 (strong) solar storm on Tuesday. 

Northern Lights aurora borealis forecast

The SWPC has continued the watch through at least Thursday as space weather forecasters continue to watch several areas of sunspot groups capable of producing more coronal mass ejections.

Space weather forecasters said the watch was issued after solar activity was elevated through the weekend with multiple solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections (CME). 

Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis), also known as aurora, colorful lights shift, illuminate the sky in Rochester, New York, United States on May 11, 2024. (Photo by Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The SWPC anticipates the Earth-directed CME components arriving through Thursday, with possible G2 (moderate) solar storm impacts on Wednesday and Thursday. 

The charged particles of a CME create the beautiful dancing lights known as Aurora Borealis or the Northern Lights. These lights are typically only seen near the North Pole, but during more intense solar storms, they can be seen as far south as the southern U.S., such as what was seen earlier this summer during the strongest geomagnetic storms in 20 years.

When is the best time to see the Northern Lights?

With the current forecast, the Northern Lights will likely be within view again on Wednesday night.

Scientists use the Kp-index to characterize the magnitude of geomagnetic storms, and the SWPC uses it to decide whether it issues geomagnetic storm alerts. The greatest Kp-index levels are forecast to happen Wednesday, reaching 6 out of 9 on the geomagnetic storm scale. Early Tuesday, the Kp recorded was a 5 with minor geomagnetic storming.

Solar storm conditions forecast through Wednesday morning. (FOX Weather)

"Should the forecast conditions occur during the late evening hours, the aurora could become visible at times as far south as the northeast U.S. through the upper Midwest and across the rest of the northern states to include northern Oregon," the SWPC said.

What are the viewing conditions in NY?

As we approach a new Moon at the beginning of August, there won’t be as much moonlight to compete with any Aurora lights. However, cloud cover will be the most significant contributing factor to visible lights where you live.

Under strong geomagnetic storm conditions, the Northern Lights can be visible in places such as Chicago, Casper, Wyoming; and Iowa. Overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday, the cloud cover in the Upper Midwest and Northeast will create fair to poor viewing conditions. 

Cloud cover forecast for the Northern Lights on Wednesday morning. (FOX Weather)

Another active sunspot region is expected to be Earth-facing in the coming days, which could produce more solar flares and CMEs. Stay with FOX Weather for your updated aurora viewing forecast. 

Emilee Speck, with FOX Weather, helped contribute to this report.