Northern Lights may light up New York skies on New Year's Eve

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Dec. 31, 2024 aurora viewing forecast when a strong geomagnetic storm is possible. (FOX Weather)

NEW YORK - There's a chance solar storms may bring northern lights to New York and several northern states just in time for the new year.

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and NASA satellites have been monitoring recent activity of strong solar flares, which originate from sunspot regions. 

"A flurry of activity occurred the weekend of 28-29 December as active regions and (sun) spot groups became unstable," the SWPC said.

NOAA's Solar Ultraviolet Imager captured three strong (X-class) solar flares on Dec. 29.

When the bursts of solar plasma hit the earth, they may spark colorful auroras Monday and Tuesday nights in Alaska, Washington, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. Parts of Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, and Iowa.

The early morning hours on Tuesday while it's still dark should have the best chance of producing a light show, NOAA space weather forecaster Shawn Dahl said.

The SWPC rates solar storms on a five-level scale, with five being the most extreme and rarest space weather conditions. Strong, Level 3 out of 5, geomagnetic storms are possible on Tuesday, and minor Level 1 storming is forecast for New Year's Day. However, space weather forecasters are considering upgrading the watch to a Level 2.

Credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

"SWPC forecasters have a fair level of confidence in some measure of Earth effectual components and general timing windows of these two particular CMEs, however, as is usual with these events, intensity is less certain," the SWPC said. "We will not know the true potential of geomagnetic disturbance levels of response until the CME(s) arrive 1 million miles from Earth (when they will be about 30-60 minutes from reaching our planet) and their structure and intensity can be measured by our solar wind observatories - NOAA DSCOVR and NASA ACE spacecraft."

Strong geomagnetic storms are not frequent but not uncommon. A strong solar storm can produce Northern Lights as far south of the North Pole as Illinois and Oregon. Those across the Northern U.S. could be in for a good show in addition to fireworks on Tuesday. 

One potential benefit of the timing of the space weather event is that aurora chasers have a new Moon on their side. On Dec. 30, a rare second new Moon of the month, known as a Black Moon, will rise. With no moonlight to interfere, skygazers hoping to spot aurora lights or far-away planets will have a better chance.

To spot the Northern Lights, move as far away from city lights as you can. If the aurora lights aren't visible to the naked eye, check your smartphone camera, and you might be surprised by what you see.

Updated forecasts may be available as the event draws closer on NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center website or an aurora forecasting app.