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Will the Mets be sellers at the deadline?
Jon Heyman breaks down the situation in Queens with the Mets struggling in the month of May. Will they trade Pete Alonso?
NEW YORK - Four months after dropping 11 games under .500, the New York Mets earned a playoff berth a day after the regular season was supposed to end.
With an 8-7 win at Atlanta in the opener of a makeup doubleheader on Monday behind Francisco Lindor's ninth-inning homer, the Mets advanced to a best-of-three NL Wild Card Series starting Tuesday at Milwaukee or San Diego. If New York wins the second game, it would play at the Padres. If the Mets lose the nightcap, they would play at Milwaukee.
New York overcame an 0-5 start to advance to the postseason for just the 11th time in 63 seasons. The Mets then rebounded from deficits of 3-0 in the eighth inning and 7-6 in the ninth to beat the Braves in Monday's opener. And the big hit was by Lindor, who returned Friday from a back injury that had sidelined him since Sept. 15.
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New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) leads off first base as Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) watches the pitch during the Tuesday evening MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets on September 24, 2024 at Truist P …
A 10-3 loss to the Dodgers on May 29 completed a three-game Los Angeles sweep at Citi Field by a combined 18-5. New York dropped to 22-33 in its first season under manager Carlos Mendoza and was six games out of the last wild-card berth and needing to overcome seven teams.
Lindor called a players' only meeting. As players explained it, the Mets aired some issues in the clubhouse that day and committed themselves to positivity, effective preparation and a team-first approach dedicated to helping each other and winning games.
"We just opened the floor and talked about ways we can turn it around," outfielder Brandon Nimmo said then. "Just felt like a boiling-over point."
Since then, with Lindor leading the charge, they have the best record in the majors at 67-39. They have outscored opponents 541-430.
Baseball's biggest spenders since Steve Cohen bought the team ahead of the 2021 season, the Mets reached the playoffs in 2022 only to lose a three-game Wild Card Series to San Diego. The Mets sank to 75-87 last year, when they had a record $319.5 million payroll and were assed a record $100.8 million luxury tax.
They began this year as the top spender again at a projected $321 million, including $70 million in payments to teams covering salaries of traded players Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and James McCann. Their projected luxury tax was $83 million.
What's at stake? What are the scenarios and outcomes?
The Mets (88-72) and Braves (88-72) will both make the playoffs if they split the doubleheader. But if there's a sweep, the Diamondbacks (89-73) will sneak into the bracket as the No. 6 seed while the team that gets swept is eliminated.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - SEPTEMBER 24: Luis Severino #40 of the New York Mets pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on September 24, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
So here's the breakdown:
- Mets win Game 1, lose Game 2: The Mets qualify for the playoffs. With the doubleheader split, the Mets would secure the No. 6 seed and play the Brewers in the Wild Card Series. The D-Backs would be eliminated, and the Braves would advance.
- Mets lose Game 1, win Game 2: The qualifying scenario is the same as above. Losing Game 1, however, would put the Mets at a disadvantage in the Wild Card Series – as they would be deploying one of their best starting pitchers, Luis Severino, for Game 2.
- Mets win both games: They qualify for the playoffs and earn the No. 5 seed. They would play the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Series. The Diamondbacks earn the No. 6 seed, and the Braves would be eliminated.
- Mets lose both games: The Mets would be eliminated.
What are the odds of the Mets making the playoffs?
This math is either really easy or really hard.
If we rationalize that the Mets have a 50/50 chance of winning either game, their chances of making the playoffs would be 75%.
That's because the only way they’d miss the playoffs is if they lost both games, which would be a 50% chance of losing the first and a 50% chance of losing the second. Probability is multiplicative: 0.5 x 0.5= 0.25
So, they’d only have a 25% chance of missing the playoffs, which would be a 75% chance of making the playoffs.
Francisco Lindor #12 and Brandon Nimmo #9 of the New York Mets celebrate a 5-0 win over the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on September 29, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
If, however, you’re not willing to simply say the chance of winning a single game is 50%, then the math becomes complicated. At this point, you'd need to factor in team and player stats, like season win/loss percentages and lineup RBIs. And which stats are used depends entirely on your own assumptions!
How to watch and listen
The game is airing on SNY and ESPN2 in the New York City market. You can also listen on Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM.
The Source: This article pulls together reporting from MLB.com and the Associated Press. Producers also consulted with a forensics researcher for the statistical analysis.