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Who is winning the 2024 election right now?

By Chris Williams
Updated  October 1, 2024 10:02pm EDT
2024 Election
FOX 5 New York

40 days until November election

LiveNOW's Austin Westfall discusses the latest in the 2024 presidential race with Susan McWilliams Barndt, a Professor of Politics at Pomona College.

The Brief 

    • Polls show a tight race between Kamala Harris and Trump, with swing states playing a crucial role.
    • Trump leads in several swing state polls, but national polls have Harris ahead.
    • New voting laws in swing states may delay the final election results.

NEW YORK - A newly-released batch of political polls have confirmed what many Americans already knew: the November election will be a close one between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Trump. 

Who will win the White House could all come down to how swing states will cast their votes. 

WATCH LIVE: VP DEBATE

The latest polls from 270toWin show that Trump holds a slight edge over Harris in many swing states. However, national polls have Harris coming out ahead of Trump. 

RELATED: Majority of Americans prefer popular vote over Electoral College, poll finds

Experts are already predicting the country may not have a president-elect on election night, especially with swing states passing new or altering state laws regarding how Americans will vote, tally ballots, and administer and certify November’s election.

For instance, Georgia and Arizona will both require election workers to do hand counts at polling sites on Election Day. Election officials say it could delay the reporting of results.

Here's what polls are predicting how swing states may vote in the upcoming election, as of October 1:

Pennsylvania:

  • Emerson College: Trump (48%), Harris (48%)
  • AARP: Harris (50%), Trump (47%). Another poll had Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.

Arizona: 

  • Emerson College: Trump (50%), Harris (47%)
  • InsiderAdvantage: Trump (49%), Harris (48%)

Race to the White House: Countdown to election

Former President Donald Trump is set to hold a rally in Indiana on Monday. Vice President Kamala Harris and President Biden are set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy next Thursday. David Washington, CEO of J & Washington political firm, joins LiveNOW from FOX to talk about the latest.

North Carolina:

  • Quinnipiac: Trump (49%), Harris (48%). Another poll had Trump at 49% and Harris at 47%.
  • Emerson College: Trump (49%), Harris (48%)
  • InsiderAdvantage: Trump (50%), Harris (49%)
  • Washington Post: Trump (50%), Harris (48%).

RELATED: Most Americans are hesitant to share their honest opinions on key political issues, study finds

Georgia:

  • Quinnipiac: Trump (50%), Harris (45%). Another poll had Trump at 50% and Harris at 44%.
  • InsiderAdvantage: Trump (48%), Harris (48%)

Georgia approves hand count of election ballots

The election board in one of the most crucial swing states in the 2024 presidential election approved a controversial new rule that will require the hand counting of ballots on election night.

Michigan:  

  • RMG Research: Harris (50%), Trump (47%)

What are national polls saying? 

  • Morning Consult: Harris  (51%), Trump (46%).
  • New York Post/ Leger: Harris (51%), Trump (47%).

The Source

  • The information for this story was obtained from the 270toWin website, which contains several political polls. Additional details were obtained from the Associated Press. This story was reported from Los Angeles.