Forget the swing states; here are the counties that will decide the 2024 election
Election 2024: Swing state showdown arrives
As Americans head to the polls in one of the most anticipated elections in modern history, Battleground brings you real-time coverage from crucial swing states that could determine the outcome. Host S.E. Cupp connects with reporters on the ground for live updates on voter turnout, polling place operations, and early insights from Nevada to Pennsylvania. Battleground provides essential coverage of the race to 270 as America makes its choice.
In a deeply divided nation, the election is a true toss-up between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, meaning the outcome of the 2024 election will rely heavily on several key battleground states.
This means the results will also rely on several counties.
From 2012 to 2016, more than 200 counties flipped from former President Barack Obama to Trump. In 2020, less than half that number changed hands from Trump to President Biden, according to NPR.
Here are the counties to keep an eye on in each of the seven swing states as Election Day unfolds.
MORE: Track live results here on election night
Arizona
Maricopa County, Arizona, has become the nation’s ultimate swing county — a place that could determine whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will be the next president and which party controls the U.S. Senate.
The county, home to Phoenix and dozens of other communities, is so closely divided politically that it can take more than a week to learn who won it. This year, election officials warn it could be as long as 13 days to tabulate all of the ballots in Maricopa.
Election day 2024: Early voting vs. election day voting
Election Day voting unfolded largely smoothly across the nation Tuesday with only scattered reports of delays from extreme weather, ballot printing errors and technical problems. LiveNOW from FOX host Stephanie Coueignoux spoke to Aaron Cutler, partner and leader of government and public relations at Hogan Lovells on the difference between early voting versus election day voting.
Pima County, which includes Arizona’s second-largest City Tucson, is considered another important county to watch. The traditionally Democratic-leaning county could bring more votes to Harris in the 2024 election.
Georgia
The 20 counties ranked highest in terms of percentage of total active voter turnout so far were all won by Trump in 2020, despite Biden winning the state overall.
The bluer counties in the Atlanta metropolitan area are still significantly larger than those rural counties where turnout is high – but in a race that came down to less than 12,000 votes in 2020, every ballot cast is critical.
Election day 2024: Millions head to the polls to vote
Election Day voting unfolded largely smoothly across the nation Tuesday with only scattered reports of delays from extreme weather, ballot printing errors and technical problems. LiveNOW from FOX host Stephanie Couiegnoux spoke to David Washington, CEO of J & Washington Political Firm on the latest.
The top three counties in terms of turnout are Towns, Oconee and Dawson – which were won by Trump in 2020.
By contrast, the counties of Henry, Cobb and Fulton – the third being home to the city of Atlanta itself – have seen less of their total active voting populations turn out before Election Day, but more more ballots cast so far.
Michigan
Some of the key counties to watch in Michigan include Wayne County (home to Detroit) and Kent County (home to Grand Rapids).
Kent County, which is in the western part of the state, could signal which direction Michigan goes.
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It was once a Republican stronghold, but has shifted more Democratic in recent years. It was one of only three counties statewide to go from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020.
Suburbs of the Detroit Metro area will also be important. Saginaw County flipped from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016 and then to Biden in 2020.
Nevada
Politicians in Washoe County, Nevada, refer to the county as "the swingiest county." The county, which encompasses Reno, is the state's second-most populous county.
In 2020, Biden won Washoe by 4.5 points. According to political data expert David Wasserman, Democratic votes in this county could offset losses in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, where the GOP has made gains in recent years.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, Harris’ margins in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, home to the state capital of Raleigh and the state’s largest city, Charlotte, respectively, will reveal how much Trump will need to squeeze out of the less-populated rural areas he has dominated, according to The Associated Press.
Cabarrus County in the suburbs of Charlotte has also gone red in the previous two elections, though Trump's margin shrunk from 20 points in 2016 to nine in 2020.
Meanwhile, Nash County, located near Raleigh, flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, but won it by a razor-thin margin.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Harris needs heavy turnout in deep blue Philadelphia, but she's also looking to boost the Democrats’ advantage in the arc of suburban counties to the north and west of the city.
She has campaigned aggressively in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, where Biden improved on Clinton’s 2016 winning margins. The Philadelphia metro area, including the four collar counties, accounts for 43 percent of Pennsylvania’s vote.
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Significantly, Northampton County has chosen the winner of the presidential election all but three times since 1920, and the area again is a battleground this year, according to the Post-Gazette. Like Erie County, voters switched from Barack Obama to Trump to Joe Biden.
Wisconsin
Harris and Trump hosted separate rallies within seven miles of one another in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Friday night in a final push for votes in the swing state’s largest city.
According to local reports, four counties will determine who might win the swing state: Dane, Door, Milwaukee and Waukesha.
Biden won 181,000 more votes in Dane County than Trump in 2020, and Milwaukee County had a 183,000-vote advantage for Biden.
Meanwhile, in Waukesha County, Trump picked up 55,000 additional votes over Biden there. Door County was red in 2016 and flipped blue in 2020.