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Why Election Night may not reveal a winner in 2024
While Americans will be watching closely for results on Election Night, there’s a strong chance we won’t have a result within 24 hours. FOX 5’s Sharon Crowley explains the factors that could delay the outcome, from swing state ballot rules to mail-in voting and potential legal challenges.
NEW YORK - The Associated Press and other decision desks will begin tallying presidential election results the moment polls close, but America may not know whether former president Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will win until a few days later.
The 2024 contest is extremely tight, especially in the seven swing states, meaning the country may have to wait for key states to count mail-in and absentee ballots before the race is called.
Track live election results here.
On Saturday Nov. 7, 2020, Biden was named president, just four days after polls closed.
When will US election results be announced?
"Voters need to know, early and often, that we're probably not going to have results on Election Day [2024]," Danielle Lang of the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center told FOX 5 NY. "Good chance we're not going to have results the day after Election Day or even the next day."
Each state has different rules for counting ballots, including Pennsylvania, where elections officials must wait until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day before they can begin to process ballots cast by mail and prepare them to be counted. The release of mail voting results cannot begin until after polls have closed.
"The biggest problem is that, in some states, in particular Pennsylvania, the Republicans in the state legislature have passed a law that requires election officials to wait until Election Day to begin opening and counting all the mail-in early ballots," Paul Schiff Berman, a professor with George Washington University's law school, told FOX 5 NY. "That just slows down the process, obviously."
Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, making it the biggest prize for the presidential candidates. So, if the highly competitive race is close in the Keystone State, as polls show it is, their counting process may hold up the rest of the country.
A mail-in ballot issued by Hudson County, New Jersey for the 2024 U.S. general election is seen on September 22, 2024, in Hoboken, New Jersey. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)
Overall, votes cast by mail have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. This means the Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in the vote count in the initial vote reports after polls close, even though the race may tighten considerably as more votes are tabulated.
What to expect from swing states on Election Night:
Michigan
Number of electoral votes: 15
A new law gives local elections officials more time to process and tabulate absentee mail ballots, which should help alleviate the logjam that slowed ballot counting in the 2020 presidential election.
Past presidential results
- 2020: Biden (D) 51%, Trump (R) 48%
- AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 5:58 p.m. ET.
How long does vote-counting take?
- First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 8:08 p.m. ET.
- By midnight ET: about 45% of total votes cast were reported.
North Carolina
Number of electoral votes: 16
North Carolina has a reputation for counting votes quickly and aims to report nearly all (90%) of its votes by midnight on Election Day, Nov. 5. This year, however, the count could be slowed in some areas due to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
Past presidential results
- 2020: Trump (R) 50%, Biden (D) 49%
- AP race call: Fri. Nov. 13, 2020, 3:49 p.m. ET.
How long does vote-counting take?
- First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 7:42 p.m. ET.
- By midnight ET: about 99% of total votes cast were reported.
Pennsylvania
Number of electoral votes: 19
In Pennsylvania, mail-in ballots cannot be processed until 7 a.m. on Election Day, leading to expected delays in results.
Past presidential results
- 2020: Biden (D) 50%, Trump (R) 49%
- AP race call: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020, 11:25 a.m. ET.
How long does vote-counting take?
- First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 8:09 p.m. ET.
- By midnight ET: about 54% of total votes cast were reported.
Nevada
Number of electoral votes: 6
Nevada conducts its elections predominantly by mail. The state allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted up to four days after, which may delay final results.
Past presidential results
- 2020: Biden (D) 50%, Trump (R) 48%
- AP race call: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020, 12:13 p.m. ET.
How long does vote-counting take?
- First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 11:41 p.m. ET.
- By 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2020: about 79% of total votes cast were reported.
Arizona
Number of electoral votes: 11
In Arizona, ballots cast and processed before Election Day are the first to be reported after polls close. Mail ballots that are delivered on Election Day take much longer to tabulate because election workers do not begin processing or verifying them until after polls close.
Past presidential results
- 2020: Biden (D) 49.4%, Trump (R) 49.1%
- AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 2:51 a.m. ET.
How long does vote-counting take?
- First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 10:02 p.m. ET.
- By midnight ET: about 72% of total votes cast were reported.
Wisconsin
Number of electoral votes: 10
Wisconsin expects delays due to absentee ballot procedures and close races.
Past presidential results
- 2020: Biden (D) 50%, Trump (R) 49%
- AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 2:16 p.m. ET.
How long does vote-counting take?
- First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 9:07 p.m. ET.
- By midnight ET: about 70% of total votes cast were reported.
Georgia
Number of electoral votes: 16
Georgia faces record turnout amid a high number of legal challenges that could impact vote processing. Georgia state law allows county elections officials to begin tabulating mail ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day. As a result, the first votes reported on election night will include much of these mail ballots as well as early in-person votes. Overall, these ballots have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election.
Past presidential results
- 2020: Biden (D) 49.5%, Trump (R) 49.3%
- AP race call: Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020, 7:58 p.m. ET.
How long does vote-counting take?
- First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 7:20 p.m. ET.
- By midnight ET: about 77% of total votes cast were reported.