WASHINGTON - We’re less than 50 days out from the 2024 presidential election and for weeks, the polls have shown Vice President Kamala Harris with a growing lead over former President Donald Trump.
One week after Harris and Trump faced off in their first debate, the vice president is still ahead according to the latest aggregate polling by RealClearPolitics.
The latest poll numbers come from FiveThirtyEight, Morning Consult and Yahoo News/YouGov.
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Wisconsin, super PACs, and election integrity
We take you into the heart of the 2024 election with just 50 days left until November 5th. Dive deep into the critical swing state of Wisconsin, where a new poll shows Kamala Harris opening up a lead. Explore the staggering influence of Super PACs, raising over $2 billion to sway voters. And hear directly from election officials in Arizona and Georgia as they race for potential challenges. Plus, JD Vance doubles down on shocking claims. Get the inside scoop from top journalists at FOX 6 Milwaukee, Axios,
Here’s a closer look at the numbers.
FiveThirtyEight
According to their data, Harris is currently up by 3% with support for her at 48.5% and support for Trump at 45.3%.
The aggregate data shows a steady rise for Harris following the debate. On Sept. 10, she had a 2.5% lead over Trump.
According to ABC News, which partners with FiveThirtyEight, Americans overwhelmingly saw Harris as the winner of the debate, 58% compared to the 36% who said Trump won.
That poll surveyed 3,276 adults and was produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos and was conducted between Sept. 11-13.
Despite her debate win, Harris' favorability rating has remained virtually unmoved since the end of August. Only 46.6% of Americans have a favorable view of the VP. Almost equally, 46.7% have a favorable view of her.
Trump's favorability ratings have also remained relatively unchanged over time, with 42.8% of voters saying they have a favorable view of him and 52.8% saying they have an unfavorable view.
Morning Consult
The latest Morning Consult poll shows that Harris has 51% of the vote while Trump has 45%. Two percent of those polled say they would vote for someone else and another 2% have no opinion.
The 6% difference is a record high for Harris. Prior to the debate, she was ahead by just 3%.
According to Morning Consult, 61% of likely voters who watched at least some of the debate said Harris performed best, while 33% said Trump was the winner.
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Who won the debate? Polls show Harris slightly ahead of Trump
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris went head-to-head in their first and possibly only debate this election season. U.S. News and World Report Editor-at-Large Brian Kelly and Reuters White House Correspondent Jeff Mason join On The Hill to discuss the big night and the polls that have followed.
While that 61% includes 1 in 5 Republicans, Harris’ favorable poll numbers are largely being driven by young voters, ages 18-34, and Black voters — 78% of whom support the vice president.
This poll was conducted between Sept. 13-15 among 11,022 likely voters.
Yahoo News/YouGov
A comprehensive YouGov poll shows support for Harris at 50%, giving her a 5-point lead over the former president at 45%. It’s her biggest lead yet in their polling.
Immediately after Harris entered the race, she was effectively tied with Trump. Yahoo News reports that the boost in numbers came after her strong showing in the debate, which numbers show swayed some swing voters and independents.
Before the debate, Harris trailed Trump by 9 points — 35% to 44% — among independents. She now leads the former president 47% to 37%.
And among those who either watched the debate or kept up with subsequent coverage, 56% said that Harris won compared to just 26% who said Trump won. Along those same lines, 48% of those familiar with the debate said Trump delivered a poor performance while 58% said Harris’ performance was either excellent or good.
Overall, 46% of respondents said the debate made them think better of Harris. Just 20% said the same about Trump.
But considering that the debate was likely the only one the two candidates will have, it’s yet to be seen if Harris’ lead will last.
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The nuanced fight for swing states
With fewer than 50 days until voters head to the polls, we examine the battle for the influential Latino vote in key swing states, the potential impact of third party candidates in a tight race, and how Democrats are making a play for disaffected Republican voters. Plus, expert analysis of the first presidential debate and what it will take to win the crucial state of Pennsylvania. Join host S.E. Cupp as she dissects these pivotal issues with expert guests, offering insights into the strategies that will
Who's ahead in battleground states?
RELATED: New poll shows Harris surging in state thought to be safe for Trump
Arizona: Trump +0.2%
- Trump: 47.2%
- Harris: 47.0%
Georgia: Trump +0.5%
- Trump: 47.5%
- Harris: 47.0%
Michigan: Harris +2.3%
- Trump: 45.8%
- Harris: 48.1%
Nevada: Harris +0.8%
- Trump: 46.3%
- Harris: 47.2%
North Carolina: Trump +0.1%
- Trump: 47.4%
- Harris: 47.3%
Pennsylvania: Harris +1.7%
- Trump: 46.4%
- Harris: 48.2%
Wisconsin: Harris +2.7%
- Trump: 46.0%
- Harris: 48.6%