Could New York become a swing state in 2024?

NEW YORK - Every presidential election, Americans hear that results boil down to the swing states, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

But now some experts are saying that there is a competitive race to be had in deep blue New York.

"If the race is close at the presidential level, that means Republicans are doing really well in these swing districts," former Republican Congressman John Faso said.

Faso knows well how a presidential race can affect down-ballot races – especially in battleground districts.

Faso won his seat in New York’s 19th Congressional district in 2016 – but this seat then swung blue in 2018.

But Faso says he sees republicans gaining a real foothold in New York over the last several years.

"It's going to be much more competitive than it was four years ago. And if the party starts spending money to contest New York, that in and of itself is a real problem for Democrats," he said.

When it comes to registered voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one in New York. In fact, the state has more registered Independents than Republicans.

The last Republican presidential candidate who won the state was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

But Siena College Pollster Steven Greenberg said you don’t have to look further than 2022, when Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul scraped by with a win against Republican Lee Zeldin – beating him by only about six points. 

"That was the first single-digit race in New York in a generation," Greenberg said.

As Greenberg points out – although Hochul won in 2022 – Republicans gained a few House seats in key swing districts in that election year.

In the most recent Siena College Poll that was taken before the debate – President Joe Biden was only leading former President Donald Trump by 8 points – once again single digits.

"If you're a Democrat in New York, running for Congress, running for the state legislature, in a marginal district in a closely enrolled district, a tight swing district, I would be nervous," Greenberg added.

Gabby Seay from Battleground New York – a Super PAC aimed at helping elect Democrats in tight races – said that they are focused on reminding New Yorkers of the issues and her message to Democrats: Stay on message.

"This President, Democrats in Congress, have done a lot of good for New York, and have created real jobs and made real progress. And that's what we need to be focusing on," Seay said.

In the last Siena College Poll taken before the debate, President Joe Biden's favorability dropped by 25 points since 2020 and is now seen more unfavorably than favorably in New York. Only 42% of New Yorkers view Biden favorably in this poll.

Biden and Trump in the polls

Most Americans have a negative view of Trump, according to the AP-NORC analysis, which combined two polls conducted close together to yield a bigger sample size. About 6 in 10 U.S. adults have a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion of him, while about 4 in 10 have a favorable opinion.

And Biden’s physical and mental ability is a reason to vote against him, according to a CNN/SSRS poll. And around 6 in 10 voters, including about one-quarter of Democrats, said that reelecting Biden as president this November would be a risky choice for the country rather than a safe one, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. That poll also found that Democrats were split on whether Biden should remain the nominee.