Could another virus wave hit NY due to other states lifting restrictions?

NEW YORK - The video is jarring: hundreds of spring breakers crowded together, drinking away without a mask in sight. And more than a dozen states have lifted mask mandates. This might lead one to think the coronavirus pandemic is over when it clearly is not.

The scenes baffle health experts across the country who say it could have a deadly impact far beyond state lines.

"Every time there's been a holiday with people traveling and mixing, we've seen a surge in cases after," said Dr. Tom Frieden, a former director of the CDC. "Right now, the main question that we have is, is there's going to be a fourth surge in this country or not?"

Three variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 are already spreading in New York, which is relying on its travel policy and contact tracing to prevent people coming from lax states from spreading the virus and variants here.

New York is already contending with a vaccine supply shortage as the city races to get as many vaccinated as quickly as possible before possible contact with the virus or its mutations from out of state.

Even with more than 2 million New Yorkers vaccinated, overall hospitalizations, cases, and the positivity rate are all slow to decline. Yet officials, including Dr. Mitchell Katz, the CEO of NYC Health + Hospitals, are optimistic because data is showing significant progress in two key indicators.

"We've seen huge, huge drops in serious hospitalizations and deaths among nursing home occupants and other elderly people," Katz said on Monday. "The vaccines are working exactly as we said — they are extremely effective in preventing serious disease and death."