Predictor Allan Lichtman was wrong about Trump’s win: Here's why
WASHINGTON, D.C. - Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman announced his pick for president – Vice President Kamala Harris – back in September. What went wrong?
Alan Lichtman's 13 keys
Lichtman has correctly called the winner of nearly every presidential election since the 1980s. But a week ago, his prediction was proven wrong when Donald Trump was declared the winner.
"My system, the 13 keys to the White House, depends upon a rational, pragmatic electorate deciding whether the White House party is governed well enough to get four more years or not. That was shattered in an unprecedented way in this election, with the avalanche of misinformation and a feeble, almost nonexistent counter," Lichtman told our sister station FOX 5 DC.
What went wrong, according to Lichtman
Lichtman blamed the misinformation on conservative podcasts, conservative media organizations like FOX News – and Elon Musk.
"We have something brand new this time, a 300-billionaire Elon Musk, who's worth more than most of the world's countries, putting his thumb on the scale and spreading disinformation on an enormous scale. Billions of people have viewed his disinformation. We've never seen anything like that," said Lichtman.
Lichtman said Trump’s win was not because more people voted for Trump this election cycle.
"He had about the same number of votes, give or take a few percentage points that he had last time. It was some 10 million Biden voters who decided not to vote this time. And that's directly tied to misinformation," said Lichtman. "With all this misinformation about the so-called carnage and shambles, all of that false, that the Biden administration has wreaked on the country, they were not willing to vote to reestablish the administration again."
In 2020, 74 million people voted for Trump. This presidential election, approximately 76 million people voted for Trump, according to the Associated Press.
But for the Democrats, only 73 million people voted for Harris, compared to more than 81 million votes for Biden in 2020.
Lichtman says he and his family experienced hate and "threatening communications" that he had never encountered in decades of presidential predictions prior.
"There is something going on now that is unprecedented and not just dangerous to me, but dangerous for the survival of our democracy. If violence is normal, if disinformation is normal, if war is peace and famine is plenty, then I despair for the future of our democracy," said Lichtman.
Whether Lichtman will be making a prediction in 2028, he says "we’ll see."
"I admitted I was wrong, and I'm going through figuring out why I was wrong. It's more than just the disinformation. There are other things that I'm contemplating," said Lichtman.